RiskFits

The True Cost of Bad Debt

How to calculate the full cost of bad debt: direct loss, carrying cost of late payment, collection cost, opportunity cost, and how much you must sell to replace it.

· 3 min read

Almost every company knows how much it wrote off last year. Few know what bad debt actually cost — because the write-off is only part of the bill. Add the carrying cost of late payment, the cost of collecting, and the sales effort needed to replace the margin, and the number is usually two to three times what was recorded as a loss.

Component 1: direct loss

Direct loss = amount not collected − recoveries

This is the number on the write-off line. Measure it net of recovery and by cohort, not only in aggregate.

Component 2: carrying cost of late payment

What the customer pays late, the company finances. Even when the money eventually arrives, capital sat idle.

Carrying cost = past-due balance × days late × daily cost of capital

A book with $800,000 running 25 days late, at a 1.5% monthly cost of capital, generates roughly $10,000 a month in carrying cost — without a single dollar becoming a loss.

Component 3: collection cost

Add it up and divide by what you recovered in the period: that is your cost per dollar recovered. It is the metric that tells you whether to scale internal collections or place accounts outside.

Component 4: opportunity cost

Two dimensions:

How much you must sell to replace a loss

The calculation that changes the conversation with sales:

Required sales = loss ÷ contribution margin

Margin$50,000 lossSales required
10%$50,000$500,000
20%$50,000$250,000
35%$50,000$143,000

At a 10% margin, half a million in revenue exists only to replace a $50,000 write-off. That number usually aligns the rigor discussion quickly.

The loss is not the invoice amount: it is the invoice amount divided by your margin. That is why credit policy is a P&L subject, not a paperwork subject.

Consolidated example

Annual credit sales of $12 million, 18% margin:

ItemAmount
Direct loss (1.8%)$216,000
Carrying cost of lateness$95,000
Collection cost$130,000
Total cost$441,000
Sales needed to replace it$2.45 million

The recorded loss was $216,000. The real cost was more than double.

How to use the number

  1. Price the terms. Total cost divided by the book gives the percentage credit sales must absorb.
  2. Justify investment in credit. Tools, data and headcount pay for themselves against this figure.
  3. Calibrate risk appetite. The acceptable loss ceiling has to consider total cost, not just write-offs.
  4. Size collections. If cost per dollar recovered exceeds the return, the design has to change.

The accounting treatment of that expected loss is covered in allowance for doubtful accounts.

What to take from this

Calculate direct loss, carrying cost and collection cost — then convert the total into the revenue required to replace it. That is the number that turns a credit discussion into a business discussion.

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